Ron Paul does best against the President

Harris Poll Logo. (PRNewsFoto/Harris Interactive)
With about ten days to go before the next primaries in the Republican race for the nomination, all four remaining Republicans are losing to President Obama by between 8 and 17 points. As the race narrows down to the final candidate, just half of Americans (51%) say they are satisfied with the choices available to them for President while more than two in five (44%) are not satisfied. Independents are the most dissatisfied with over half (55%) saying they are not satisfied with the choices while two-thirds of Democrats (68%) are satisfied. Republicans are more split as half are satisfied (52%) and 44% are not satisfied. But the Republican satisfaction is soft with just 13% very satisfied and 39% saying they are only somewhat satisfied.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,056 adults surveyed online between February 6 and 13, 2012 by Harris Interactive.
Head to head match-ups
If the presidential election were held today, 46% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 37% would vote for Mitt Romney and 17% are not at all sure. Last month, two in five U.S. adults (43%) said they would vote for President Obama while 39% said they would vote for Mitt Romney. Among Independents, it’s a slightly closer race with 43% voting for the President and 37% voting for the former governor and 46% of adults in the 2012 Swing States (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) would vote for President Obama and 39% would vote for Mitt Romney.
Ron Paul may not be in the fight for front-runner, but he actually makes it a slightly tighter race as 45% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 37% would vote for the Congressman while 18% are not at all sure. Among Independents, Paul is ahead 42% to the President’s 40% but in the 2012 Swing States the President is ahead 45% to 41% for Paul.
He may be jockeying for front-runner status but the former Senator from Pennsylvania is more than ten points behind the President. Almost half of Americans would vote for President Obama (47%) while 35% would vote for Rick Santorum and 18% are not at all sure. Among Independents, 44% would vote for President Obama and 35% for Santorum with 20% not at all sure. In the 2012 Swing states, 46% would vote for the President while 40% would vote for Santorum.
Finally, if the election was held today, half of Americans (50%) would vote for President Obama and one-third for Newt Gingrich (33%) with 18% not at all sure. Among Independents, President Obama leads Newt Gingrich 47% to 32% with 20% not at all sure and among people in the 2012 Swing states President Obama leads Newt Gingrich 48% to 36% with 16% not at all sure.
So What?
The Republican primary continues to be a road full of twists and turns and the main benefactor to these constant changing stories is President Obama. In each of these four races the President has expanded his lead. The question is what happens when the primary race is over and the Republicans have decided on a candidate. If that happens quickly, he will have time to make the race close, but the longer the primary goes, the shorter the general election timeframe becomes.
TABLE 1
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would
you most likely vote?”
———————————————————————————————–
Base: All adults
—————-
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
— — — — —
% % % % %
— — — — —
Barack Obama 41 41 43 43 46
———— — — — — —
Mitt Romney 40 41 40 39 37
———– — — — — —
Not at all sure 18 18 17 19 17
————— — — — — —
Note: Percentages may not add up
to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2
ROMNEY VS. OBAMA – By Party and Political Philosophy
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Base: All adults
—————-
Total 2012 Swing state Party ID Political Philosophy
—– —————- ——– ——————–
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
—- —- —- —– —- —-
% % % % % % % %
— — — — — — — —
Barack Obama 46 46 9 84 43 19 51 78
———— — — — — — — — —
Mitt Romney 37 39 77 7 37 64 30 10
———– — — — — — — — —
Not at all sure 17 15 14 9 20 16 19 12
————— — — — — — — — —
Note: Percentages may not add up
to 100% due to rounding; 2012
Swing States are Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada,
New Hampshire, North Carolina,
Ohio and Virginia
TABLE 3
GINGRICH VS OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Base: All adults
—————-
Total Total Total 2012 Party ID Political Philosophy
Dec Jan Feb Swing
States
——
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
—- —- —- —– —- —-
% % % % % % % % % %
— — — — — — — — — —
Barack Obama 45 45 50 48 12 87 47 19 56 83
———— — — — — — — — — — —
Newt Gingrich 38 36 33 36 72 6 32 63 24 6
————- — — — — — — — — — —
Not at all sure 17 19 18 16 16 7 20 18 20 12
————— — — — — — — — — — —
Note: Percentages may not add up
to 100% due to rounding; 2012
Swing States are Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada,
New Hampshire, North Carolina,
Ohio and Virginia
TABLE 4
PAUL VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Base: All adults
—————-
Total Oct Total Nov Total Total 2012 Party ID Political
Philosophy
Jan Feb Swing
States
——
Rep Dem Ind Cons Mod Lib
— — — —- — —
% % % % % % % % % % %
— — — — — — — — — — —
Barack Obama 41 40 42 45 45 10 84 40 20 50 74
———— — — — — — — — — — — —
Ron Paul 36 38 38 37 41 71 8 42 61 31 14
——– — — — — — — — — — — —
Not at all sure 23 21 20 18 15 19 9 18 19 19 12
————— — — — — — — — — — — —
Note: Percentages may not add up
to 100% due to rounding; 2012
Swing States are Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada,
New Hampshire, North Carolina,
Ohio and Virginia
TABLE 5
SANTORUM VS. OBAMA
“If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Base: All adults
—————-
Total Total 2012 Party ID Philosophy
Jan Feb Swing
States
— —
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
—- —- —- —– —- —-
% % % % % % % % %
— — — — — — — — —
Barack Obama 45 47 46 10 85 44 18 54 78
———— — — — — — — — — —
Rick Santorum 36 35 40 74 6 35 67 25 7
————- — — — — — — — — —
Not at all sure 19 18 14 16 8 20 15 21 14
————— — — — — — — — — —
Note: Percentages may not add up
to 100% due to rounding; 2012
Swing States are Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada,
New Hampshire, North Carolina,
Ohio and Virginia
TABLE 6
SATISFACTION WITH CANDIDATE CHOICES
“How satisfied are you with the choices available to you for President?”
————————————————————————
Base: All adults
—————-
Total Tea 2012 Party ID Philosophy
Party Swing
Supporter States
—— —
Rep Dem Ind Cons Mod Lib
— — — —- — —
% % % % % % % % %
— — — — — — — — —
SATISFIED (NET) 51 51 55 52 68 42 50 49 61
————– — — — — — — — — —
Very Satisfied 19 12 25 13 35 12 16 17 31
————– — — — — — — — — —
Somewhat satisfied 32 39 30 39 33 30 34 32 30
—————— — — — — — — — — —
NOT SATISFIED (NET) 44 48 41 44 29 55 47 46 34
—————— — — — — — — — — —
Not very satisfied 28 34 27 32 18 34 32 28 20
—————— — — — — — — — — —
Not at all satisfied 16 14 14 12 11 21 15 18 14
——————– — — — — — — — — —
Not at all sure 5 1 4 4 3 3 4 6 5
————— — — — — — — — — —
Note: Percentages may not add up
to 100% due to rounding; 2012
Swing States are Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada,
New Hampshire, North Carolina,
Ohio and Virginia
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between January 25 and 27, 2012 among 2,099 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
J41216
Q1245, 1246, 1247, 1249, 1250
The Harris Poll®#18, February 17, 2012
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive